![]() The information contained in this article does not constitute a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the recipient, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, investment, accounting, or tax advice through this article or to its recipient. This article is being provided for educational purposes only. If those timelines are correct, then AI adoption would likely start having a meaningful impact on the U.S. That said, a significant majority expect to have adopted AI over a three- to 10-year horizon. Likewise, CEO surveys show less than a quarter expect generative AI will impact their company or lower their labor needs over the next one to three years. ![]() In the 2021 American Business survey, only 4% of US firms reported using AI in their business processes. Our economists’ previous research has shown that such mentions tend to predict increases in company-level capital spending. Roughly half of that spike came after the release of ChatGPT in the fourth quarter of 2022. While the timing of the AI investment cycle is hard to predict, business surveys suggest that it’s likely to start having an investment impact in the second half of this decade, with earlier adoption by larger firms in information and professional, scientific, and technical services.Īnd even though it will take time for AI to boost productivity, market interest in AI has already increased rapidly, with more than 16% of companies in the Russell 3000 mentioning the technology on earnings calls, up from less than just 1% of those firms in 2016. and 1.5 to 2.5% of GDP in other major AI leaders, if Goldman Sachs Research’s AI growth projections are fully realized. Over the longer-term, AI-related investment could peak as high as 2.5 to 4% of GDP in the U.S. While a similar effect could also play out in other AI leaders (such as China), the investment impact will likely be smaller and more delayed. ![]() The U.S., meanwhile, is positioned as the market leader in AI technology, and American companies will likely be relatively early adopters, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Those investments, which could amount to around $200 billion globally by 2025, will probably happen before adoption and efficiency gains start driving major gains in productivity.ĪI-related investment is climbing from a relatively low starting point and will likely take a few years to have a major impact on the economy, Briggs and Kodnani write. But for large-scale transformation to happen, businesses will need to make significant upfront investment in physical, digital, and human capital to acquire and implement new technologies and reshape business processes. “In 20 years the number one market will not be the U.S., the number one market is internally within China,” Leahy told a news conference.Generative AI has enormous economic potential and could boost global labor productivity by more than 1 percentage point a year in the decade following widespread usage, Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani write in the team’s report. Sales chief John Leahy said he would announce some new plane orders on Wednesday in China, the world’s fastest growing aviation market, which is set to leapfrog the United States as an aviation market. The world's second largest planemaker behind rival Boeing BA.N insisted urban population growth would help drive demand for its flagship A380 superjumbo, but acknowledged that recently weak sales had left a "couple" of open slots in 2015 production. Its latest forecast includes 28,355 passenger jets, up 3.7 percent from its previous estimate a year ago, and 871 freighters, up 1.6 percent. ![]() The European planemaker said airlines, lessors and cargo operators would need a total of 29,226 new passenger and freighter jets worth $4.4 trillion over the next 20 years. The Paris Air Show runs from June 17 to 23. An Airbus A350 participates in a flying display during the 50th Paris Air Show at the Le Bourget airport near Paris, June 22, 2013.
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